| The term red pill and its opposite, blue pill, are pop culture terms that have become a common symbol for the choice between the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue) and embracing the sometimes painful truth of reality (red). |
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Will America Ever Recover From The Housing Crisis – A Real Estate Infographic
Back in March, on the back of the last gasp of yet another central bank-induced sugar high (in this case mostly LTRO 1+2), as well as economic data skewed by record warmth, a plethora of housing bottom callers (we would call them analysts but they are anything but) emerged from their hibernation and did what they do like clockwork every year: called a housing in bottom. Sadly, now that the market has topped out, at least for the current easing iteration, it appears that the housing triple dip as measured by Case Shiller will shortly be a quadruple dip. And so on, and so on, until the question becomes: will America ever recover from the housing crisis. We don’t know, but we do know one thing – fixing an excess debt problem with more debt won’t work. Period. Yet that is what continues to be the only “policy” in resolving the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. For everyone else seeking a more nuanced answer we suggest perusing the infographic below which provides a less jaded perspective and even has a Hollywood conclusion: “The end is on the horizon”… well, a Tarantino-esque conclusion: “…The distant horizon.”
continue, to see infographic
What You Should Know About Inflation
What You Should Know About Inflation (5.2 MiB)
The book’s title-What You Should Know About Inflation-only hints at the extent of the issues that Hazlitt addresses. He presents the Austrian theory of money in the clearest possible terms, and contrasts it with the fallacies of government management. He takes on not only the Keynesians but also the monetarists, as well as anyone who believes that government debt accumulation and manipulation of interest rates are harmless. So this book is about far more than inflation. He touches on a wide variety of macroeconomic topics, any area of economic policy that is related to the monetary regime, including budget and trade issues, as well has the economic history of inflation. Particularly interesting is the final section of the book in which Hazlitt critiques various proposals for monetary reform and then presents his view. What is Hazlitt’s own idea for monetary reform? He wants competitive monies, which he believes will be based in precious metal. He doesn’t demand that governments get out of the monetary business altogether but merely that government permit everyone to choose to use any money and make any form of contract. Hazlitt lays out a scenario that he… Continue reading
What is America’s Economic Breaking Point?
If there exists a single factor that can put enough pressure on the whole of the American economy and force it to crumble under its own weight, it’s the price the average American pays for gas. Extreme up-side gas price swings have preceded seven of the last eight American recessions, most recently in the summer of 2008 when drivers were forced to pay an all time high in excess of $4.50 per gallon at the pumps. What followed this spike – caused in part by tightening supplies, rising demand, easy money and a health dose of financial propaganda – was nothing short of the most severe financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Nearly four years on the country finds itself in the midst of difficult times that have taken their toll on millions of Americans through job losses, home foreclosures, un-servicable debt, and ever dwindling retirement savings. By all accounts, Americans are worse off today than they were ten years ago, and the state of our nation, despite what Washington’s media masters report, is fiscally, economically, and socially dire.
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US Companies Are Furiously Creating Jobs… Abroad
Whatever one thinks of the practical implications of the Kalecki equation (and as we pointed out a month ago, GMO’s James Montier sure doesn’t think much particularly when one accounts for the ever critical issue of asset depreciation), it intuitively has one important implication: every incremental dollar of debt created at the public level during a time of stagnant growth (such as Q1 2012 as already shown earlier) should offset one dollar of deleveraging in the private sector. In turn, this should facilitate the growth of private America so it can eventually take back the reins of debt creation back from the public sector (and ostensibly help it delever, although that would mean running a surplus – something America has done only once in the post-war period). This growth would manifest itself directly by the hiring of Americans by US corporations, small, medium and large, who in turn, courtesy of their newly found job safety, would proceed to spend, and slowly but surely restart the frozen velocity of money which would then spur inflation, growth, public sector deleveraging, and all those other things we learn about in Econ 101. All of the above works… in theory. In practice, not so much. Because as the WSJ demonstrates, in the period 2009-2011, America’s largest multinational companies: those who benefit the most from the public sector increasing its debt/GDP to the most since WWII, or just over 100% and rapidly rising, and thus those who should return the favor by hiring American workers, have instead hired three times as many foreigners as they have hired US workers. Those among us cynically inclined could say, correctly, that the US is incurring record levels of leverage to fund foreign leverage, foreign employment, and, most importantly, foreign leverage.
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Peak Dow, Peak GDP and Peak Oil
Peak Oil and Peak Credit do not exist in a vacuum; they’re why we have Peak GDP, Peak Dow and peak Income.
You don’t get Peak Oil and cheap abundance in everything else: you get Peak X, Y and Z, for example Peak Oil, Peak Dow and Peak GDP. Peaks come in causal series, one such series: Peak Housing, Peak Fraud, Peak Suburbia and Peak Property Taxes.
Would we really be surprised if Peak Oil was associated with Peak GDP and Peak Dow Jones stock market average? Let’s start with a chart of global oil production and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), courtesy of Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh.
This chart suggests the Dow may track oil production on the downside, just as it tracked it on the upside.
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Student Loan Debt Slaves In Perpetuity – A True Story Of “Bankruptcy Hell”
The numeric implications as well as the magnitude of the student loan bubble have been discussed extensively before. Yet just like most people’s eyes gloss over when they hear billions, trillions or quadrillions, so seeing the exponential chart of Federal Student debt merely brings up memories of a math lesson from high school, or at best, makes one think of statistics. And as we all know statistics are faceless, nameless and can never apply to anyone else. It is the individual case studies that have the most impact. Which is why we would like to introduce you to Devin and Sarah Stang – student loan debt slaves in perpetuity.
First, for those who are still unfamiliar with the brush strokes, here is the big picture, courtesy of AP:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates 37 million Americans have student loan debt, totaling $870 billion. The average balance is around $23,000 (though that partly reflects a relatively small number of very large balances; the median is $12,800). Only 39 percent are paying down balances. An estimated 5.4 million borrowers have at least one student loan account past due.
Roughly 85 percent of outstanding student loan debt is owed to the federal government. The remaining 15 percent that’s counted as private student debt is owed to various non-federal lenders, ranging from banks to loan companies like Sallie Mae Corp. to non-profits and state-affiliated agencies (under the Durbin bill, loans from any government-funded entity still wouldn’t be dischargeable, only those from truly private lenders).
Generally, it’s these private loans that bring borrowers to the door of bankruptcy lawyers like Barrett. Private student loans often lack the protections of federal ones, and have rates that typically start higher and can shoot up. A recent survey of bankruptcy attorneys found 81 percent reporting more clients with student debt in recent years, and roughly half reporting a significant increase.
And, also by way of background to those unfamiliar, student debt has a very peculiar feature:
Virtually any other kind of debt — including medical bills, mortgage, credit cards and car loans, even gambling losses— can be discharged in bankruptcy, allowing the “honest but unlucky” a chance to restore their footing through an arduous restructuring overseen by a court.
But under a 2005 law passed by Congress to protect lenders, private student loans fall under the same nearly-impossible-to-clear category as child support payments and criminal fines.
“It’s a huge part of why the younger generations are here now,” said the Stangs’ bankruptcy lawyer, Matthew Barrett, whose busy office in Amherst, west of Cleveland, belies stories about the improving economy. He estimates half his clients have problems with student debt.
