| The term red pill and its opposite, blue pill, are pop culture terms that have become a common symbol for the choice between the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue) and embracing the sometimes painful truth of reality (red). |
| Take The Journey |
|
|
- Talk of a Greek Exit Gets Louder
- Doug Casey on Taxes and Freedom, Part II
- Is Facebook the Rusty Hinge of the Stock Market?
- Fitch Downgrades Japan
- Doug Casey on Taxes and Freedom
- Greeks Run on Banks as Euro-Confidence Wanes
- To the Class of 2012
- Hedge Funds Bail On Euro Now
- Expatriation in the Wake of the Facebook IPO
Will America Ever Recover From The Housing Crisis – A Real Estate Infographic
Back in March, on the back of the last gasp of yet another central bank-induced sugar high (in this case mostly LTRO 1+2), as well as economic data skewed by record warmth, a plethora of housing bottom callers (we would call them analysts but they are anything but) emerged from their hibernation and did what they do like clockwork every year: called a housing in bottom. Sadly, now that the market has topped out, at least for the current easing iteration, it appears that the housing triple dip as measured by Case Shiller will shortly be a quadruple dip. And so on, and so on, until the question becomes: will America ever recover from the housing crisis. We don’t know, but we do know one thing – fixing an excess debt problem with more debt won’t work. Period. Yet that is what continues to be the only “policy” in resolving the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. For everyone else seeking a more nuanced answer we suggest perusing the infographic below which provides a less jaded perspective and even has a Hollywood conclusion: “The end is on the horizon”… well, a Tarantino-esque conclusion: “…The distant horizon.”
continue, to see infographic
What If Housing Is Done for a Generation?
What if housing valuations are in a structural, multi-decade decline?
A strong case can be made that the fundamental supports of the housing market– demographics, employment, creditworthiness and income–will not recover for a generation. It can even be argued that housing has lost its status as the foundation of middle class wealth, not for a generation, but for the long term.
Let’s begin by noting that despite the many tax breaks lavished on housing–the mortgage interest deduction, etc.–there is nothing magical about housing as an asset. That is, its price responds in an open, transparent market to supply and demand and the cost of money and risk.
There are a number of quantifiable inputs that feed into supply and demand–new housing starts, mortgage rates and income, to name three–but there are other less quantifiable inputs as well, notably the belief (or faith) that housing will return to being a “good investment,” i.e. rising in price roughly 1% above the rate of inflation.
If this faith erodes, then the other factors of demand face an insurmountable headwind, for the most fundamental support of housing is the belief that buying a house is the first step to securing middle class wealth.
Rising rates of homeownership require five conditions:
1. Favorable demographics: a cohort of potential buyers that is larger than the cohort of potential sellers.
2. Rising household formation rates: an expanding population does not necessarily translate into rising rates of household formation. If the number of people per household goes up, then the number of households can plummet even as population expands.
3. A large cohort of creditworthy potential buyers: that means buyers with savings, buyers with sufficient income to pay the mortgage and buyers with low debt loads.
4. An economy that generates rising incomes to support homeownership.
5. An unshakable belief that owning a house is a favorable and secure investment that will rise in value in the decades ahead.
If the first four conditions have eroded, then the belief in the permanence of a rising housing market will also erode.
Continue reading
Special Report: The watchdogs that didn’t bark
(Reuters) – Four years after the banking system nearly collapsed from reckless mortgage lending, federal prosecutors have stayed on the sidelines, even as judges around the country are pointing fingers at possible wrongdoing.
The federal government, as has been widely noted, has pressed few criminal cases against major lenders or senior executives for the events that led to the meltdown of 2007. Finding hard evidence has proved difficult, the Justice Department has said.
The government also hasn’t brought any prosecutions for dubious foreclosure practices deployed since 2007 by big banks and other mortgage-servicing companies.
But this part of the financial system, a Reuters examination shows, is filled with potential leads.
Foreclosure-related case files in just one New York federal bankruptcy court, for example, hold at least a dozen mortgage documents known as promissory notes bearing evidence of recently forged signatures and illegal alterations, according to a judge’s rulings and records reviewed by Reuters. Similarly altered notes have appeared in courts around the country.
Continue reading
New Wave of 4 Million Foreclosures Coming Soon
Despite a seasonal slowdown in overall foreclosure activity, and a process still bogged down and backed up by the “robo-signing” processing scandal, the U.S real estate market is about to be hit by another surge of bank repossessions, according to a new report from the online foreclosure sale site RealtyTrac. As banks resubmit millions of documents and courts begin hearing cases again, the backlog of over four million delinquent loans will start surging through the pipeline again.
“November’s numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves, many of which may roll into the market as REOs [bank repossessions] or short sales sometime early next year,” said James Saccacio, co-founder of RealtyTrac. “Overall foreclosure activity is down 14 percent from a year ago, the smallest annual decrease over the past 12 months, and some bellwether states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts actually posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in November.”
Foreclosure auctions, where the property is sold at the courthouse either to an investor or in most cases back to the bank, reached a nine-month high in November, which corresponds to a recent surge in default notices, the first stage in the foreclosure process, back in August. Troubled… Continue reading
Las Vegas Journalist, Becomes Victim Of Foreclosure Fraud He Reported On
Improper foreclosure practices are so widespread in Las Vegas that one reporter trying to expose them instead found he too was a victim of foreclosure fraud.
George Knapp, chief investigative reporter for Las Vegas CBS affiliate KLAS, was investigating how “tens of thousands” of people who thought they were homeowners turned out not to actually own their homes due to fraudulent paperwork, when he discovered that he was in that exact situation. (h/t MediaBistro).
Las Vegas foreclosure attorney Tisha Black told Knapp that nine out of 10 foreclosure filings aren’t done properly, jeopardizing the ownership status of the house in the future.
“I gave her my address, because I bought a home out of foreclosure three years ago this month,” Knapp said on KLAS during the conclusion of his report. “The Attorney General’s office confirmed to me that I don’t own my home because of bogus signatures and improper filings.”
More than a tenth of all homes in Las Vegas received a default notice last year, according to a RealtyTrac report cited by CNNMoney. The national foreclosure average was five times lower than that of Sin City’s. In September, Las Vegas-area home prices fell to their… Continue reading
Mortgage Fraud
Wondering if you are one of those suckers paying a mortgage in limbo, with all the payments due to some non-existent mortgage noteholder getting retained at the servicer banks? Well, if you can spare 3 minutes then “Where’s the Note” is for you. The website, which is on the verge of a viral break out, has a simple message: “Whether you are facing foreclosure, have an underwater mortgage, or are just a concerned homeowner, it’s important that you contact your bank and demand to see the original note on your mortgage. It only takes a few minutes using our free online tool.” Quick, simple and easy. And in a few days your mortgage bank will have no choice but to tell you if they do in fact have your original mortgage note. And if not – welcome to cost-free living, courtesy of MERS and millions of rushed and fraudulent mortgage note assignments. Yes, it will mean the end of the GSEs, but it will also mean the accelerated write downs on thousands of MBS tranches which will rapidly collapse into insolvency (there is only so much Mark to Unicorn can cover up) and eventually take the insolvent TBTFs banks with them.
