IMF: Gold Is Scarce “Safe Asset” And “Growing Shortage of Safe Assets”
IMF: Gold Is Scarce “Safe Asset” And “Growing Shortage of Safe Assets”
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,655.50, EUR 1,261.33, and GBP 1,039.04 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,654.00, EUR 1,261.63 and GBP 1,040.25 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $31.56/oz, €24.01/oz and £19.78/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,583.75/oz, palladium at $637.50/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $0.90 or 0.05% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,658.10/oz. Gold has been trading sideways in Asian trading and remains in a tight range in Europe this morning near $1,656.07/oz.
Gold remains supported this morning as the ECB signalled that it would intervene in the debt markets on worries about Spain and the risk of contagion in the Eurozone. ECB board member Benoit Coeure said “the European Central Bank still has its bond-buying programme as an option”.
Investors are also still concerned about other peripheral Eurozone economies like Italy and how they might affect the core Eurozone nations. Italy saw its 1 year borrowing costs rise for the first time since November during its sale of short term bills yesterday, ahead of a 3 year bond auction later today.
The number two official at the US Fed, Yellen, said overnight that due to high unemployment facing the economy, the Fed has left the door open to further Fed action including QE.
Further QE and the continuation of ultra loose monetary policies will be positive for gold.
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London Brokers Shrink as Debt Crisis Bites
London’s stockbrokers are shrinking as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and competition from international firms squeezes revenue and fees.
“This isn’t just a blip, this is much worse,” said Tim Linacre, who is stepping down as chief executive officer of Panmure (PMR) Gordon & Co., a 135-year-old brokerage. “It’s a desert for activity, which is why you are seeing some firms throw in the towel.”
In the past month, Altium Capital closed its securities unit. Evolution Group Plc (EVG), Merchant Securities Group Plc, Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. and Collins Stewart Hawkpoint Plc have all accepted takeover offers from larger competitors.
“It feels worse than any other time,” said Lorna Tilbian, an executive director at Numis Corp. who began her career in 1984. “All I hear about is people putting up a white flag.”
The firms are being squeezed as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis reduces the number of shares traded as well as fees from initial public offerings and share sales. Commissions paid to brokerages in Europe may be down 17 percent this year on 2008, according to estimates by Westborough, Massachusetts-based research firm Tabb Group LLC. Global firms are gaining market share from their smaller London rivals because they are better able to bear the rising costs of electronic trading.
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Is the Gold Bull Really Dead?
Economist Dennis Gartman announced in his newsletter, yesterday, that he has sold all of his gold. I don’t know if it was physical or paper gold in an ETF (exchange traded fund), but it is gone. According to Bloomberg, Gartman said, “Since the early autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere gold has failed to make a new high. . . . Each high has been progressively lower than the previous high, and now we’ve confirmation that the new interim low is lower than the previous low. We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.” Mr. Gartman thinks so much damage has been done to the price of gold and to market psychology that, in his words, “. . . wholesale liquidation, and perhaps forced liquidation, shall be the outcome.” (Click here to read the complete Bloomberg story featuring Mr. Gartman’s call on Au.)
I think Mr. Gartman is a trader at heart, but there is a big difference between a gold trader and a gold investor. Traders are usually looking at the short term, and in the short term, Gartman is probably correct. The price of gold will probably sell off some more… Continue reading
Video Explanation Of How The ESM Is Europe’s TARP
Three years ago, Congress balked at the mere thought of giving Hank Paulson’s (so lovingly portrayed in Andrew Ross Sorkin’s straight to HBO Too Big To Fail) proposed TARP, which came in an “exhaustive” 3 page term sheet with limited bailout powers however with virtually unlimited waivers and supervision, and voted it down leading to one of the biggest market collapses in history. Curiously, a more careful look through Europe’s €500 billion (oddly enough almost the same size as America’s $700 billion TARP) European Stability Mechanism or ESM, reveals that in preparing the terms and conditions of the ESM, Europe may have laid precisely the same Easter Egg that Paulson did with TARP, but failed. Because at its core, the ESM is like a TARP… on steroids. It is a potentially unlimited liquidity conduit (only contingent on how much cash Germany wants to allocate to it – which in turn means how much cash Germany is willing to let the ECB print), with no supervisory checks and balances embedded, and even worse with no explicit or implicit liability clauses – in essence it is a carte blanche for its owners to do as they see fit without… Continue reading
As Gold Rebounds Over $1600, Some Thoughts On Why The Liquidation Snapback Is Here
Yesterday when gold was trading in the $1570 range based on the very volatile shifts in the funding environment for gold, whereby the gold lease rate had moved from record negative to borderline flat, the plunge in the yellow metal is likely coming to an end. Less than 24 hours later, gold has just passed $1600 yet again. And as the following note from Sandeep Jaitly of First International Group observes, by analyzing the continued funding unwind pressure, the recent liquidation move in gold is one that has to be taken advantage of. To wit: “The movements in the bases confirm that the recent downward move in gold against Dollars was as a result of Dollar funding pressures. Gold was lent on the swap against United States Dollars. This swap must be unwound and where a bid for gold was sought to raise Dollar liquidity, an offer of gold will be sought to unwind the swaps. The co-bases for Feb-12 and Apr-12 gold contracts are starting to advance – an exceptionally bullish signal following the selloff and a sign that physical buying is being prompted by these lower prices. It would be very prudent to accumulate gold against United States Dollars aggressively over the next fortnight.“
What Have The Central Banks Of The World Done Now?
The central banks of the world are acting as if it is 2008 all over again. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and right now the central bankers are pulling out all the stops. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank have announced a coordinated plan to provide liquidity support to the global financial system.
According to the plan, the Federal Reserve is going to substantially reduce the interest rate that it charges the European Central Bank to borrow dollars. In turn, that will enable the ECB to lend dollars to European banks at a much cheaper rate. The hope is that this will alleviate the credit crunch which has gripped the European financial system by the throat. So where is the Federal Reserve going to get all of these dollars that it will be loaning out at very low interest rates? You guessed it – the Fed is just going to create them out of thin air. Our currency is being debased so that Europe can be helped out. Unfortunately, the impact of this move will be mostly “psychological” because it really does nothing to address the fundamental problems that Europe is facing. It is up to Europe to solve those problems, and so far Europe has shown no signs of being able to do that.
The major central banks of the world say that they want to “enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system.” But essentially what is happening is that the Federal Reserve is going to be zapping large amounts of dollars into existence and loaning them out to the ECB very, very cheaply. Think of it as a type of “quantitative easing” on a global scale.
The decision to do this was reportedly made by the Federal Reserve on Monday morning. For the moment, this move seems to have stabilized the European financial system. It is quite unlikely that any major European banks will fail this weekend now.
But as mentioned above, this move does nothing to solve the very serious financial problems that Europe is facing. This intervention by the central banks is merely just a speed bump on the road to financial oblivion.
Most Americans are not going to understand what the central banks of the world just did, but it really is not that complicated.
The following is how CNN chief business correspondent Ali Velshi broke down what the central banks have done….
In an attempt to stave off the consequences of a global credit freeze, the Federal Reserve, in coordination with major central banks, has created a credit line available to those central banks, whereby they can borrow dollars at reduced interest rates for periods of three months. The central banks, in turn, can lend to commercial banks in their respective countries. This is meant to reduce the cost of short-term borrowing for troubled European banks and to give them immediate access to dollars.
This was done immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers as well, to alleviate the consequences of banks being largely unwilling to lend to other banks, even for short periods, for fear that the borrowing banks could fail.
Okay – so the Federal Reserve is loaning giant piles of cheap money to the European Central Bank.
So where in the world does all of that money come from?











